oxford & international

Biosecurity Forecasting Group

Forecasting to drive informed decision-making in biosecurity

What is this group?

This is a private group launched in February 2025 that aims to establish forecasts on biosecurity topics. We completed our trial period in May 2025 and are now an indepedent group. The goal is to provide a credible source of evaluated forecasts, enabling stakeholders to understand likely outcomes, prioritise resources, and drive informed decision-making in biosecurity. Our initial three-month focus is on viral outbreaks. We are accepting applications on a rolling basis. We are also interested in hearing from potential collaborators and partners. Find out more below.

What will we be forecasting?

The initial 3-month trial version of this group focused on viral outbreaks. We are currently evaluating the results and are choosing our future question topics.

Example questions

1. How many confirmed human cases of H5N1 will there be globally by December 31, 2025?
2. What is the likelihood that H5N1 will cause more than [X] human deaths in [specific region/country] by [specific date]?
3. By [specific date], how many countries will report Mpox outbreaks involving more than [X] cases?
4. What is the probability that a Marburg virus outbreak will result in more than [X] confirmed cases in [specific country/region] by [specific date]?This group is open to forecast requests. Please email: [email protected]

How can I become a member?

If you are interested in joining the Biosecurity Forecasting Group we encourage you to apply. We are currently not processing new applications until August 2025. We will contact all applicants after the trial period about opportunities to get involved in the future.In general, you are likely to be a good fit for the forecasting group if you meet the following criteria:Criteria (you meet at least one of the following):
• Forecaster with ~2 or more years of experience and a top track record
• Virology/immunology/synthetic biology PhD student or higher, or 2-3 years of relevant biological research (e.g. in an academic lab or industry)
• Biosecurity experience or background (e.g. has worked, volunteered or done graduate research in biosecurity)We're especially looking for (you meet at least one of the following):
• Infectious disease modelling professionals
• Postdocs, assistant professors and professors in relevant fields
• Think tank employee focusing on biosecurity
• Government representatives or scientific officers in governments (with permission from their employer)

What does being a member involve?

For the time being, here are the answers to some of our frequently asked questions (FAQs). Further details on membership will be confirmed in due course.Are there a minimum amount of hours required to take part?
NoAre there country requirements for taking part?
NoAre there any other exclusion criteria for members e.g. government workers?
NoHow is this compensated?
Contributions to BFG questions are currently voluntary. We share paid opportunities with our forecasters. For example forecasting contract opportunities.What platform is used to make forecasts?
Fatebook is used.