oxford biosecurity group

Biosecurity Forecasting Group

Forecasting to drive informed decision-making in biosecurity

What is this group?

This is a newly launched private group run by Oxford Biosecurity Group that aims to establish internal forecasts on biosecurity topics. The goal is to provide a credible source of evaluated forecasts, enabling stakeholders to understand likely outcomes, prioritise resources, and drive informed decision-making in biosecurity. Our initial three-month focus is on viral outbreaks. Our initial 3-month trial version is underway, though we are accepting applications on a rolling basis. We are also interested in hearing from potential collaborators and partners. Find our more below.

What will we be forecasting?

We are running an initial 3-month trial version of this group which focuses specifically on forecasting viral outbreaks. After this period, results will be evaluated, and the group may expand its focus to further areas based on stakeholder interest, funding availability, and interest from potential members.

Example questions

1. How many confirmed human cases of H5N1 will there be globally by December 31, 2025?
2. What is the likelihood that H5N1 will cause more than [X] human deaths in [specific region/country] by [specific date]?
3. By [specific date], how many countries will report Mpox outbreaks involving more than [X] cases?
4. What is the probability that a Marburg virus outbreak will result in more than [X] confirmed cases in [specific country/region] by [specific date]?This group is open to forecast requests. Please email: [email protected]

How can I become a member?

The trial period is underway and will end on Monday May 19. However, we will be reviewing membership towards the end of each month during the MVP and may consider accepting members on an as-needed basis. If you are interested in joining the Biosecurity Forecasting Group during this trial period we encourage you to apply. You will only hear from us if you are accepted during this trial period, but we will contact all applicants after the trial period about opportunities to get involved in the future.In general, you are likely to be a good fit for the forecasting group if you meet the following criteria:Criteria (you meet at least one of the following):
• Forecaster with ~2 or more years of experience and a top track record
• Virology/immunology/synthetic biology PhD student or higher, or 2-3 years of relevant biological research (e.g. in an academic lab or industry)
• Biosecurity experience or background (e.g. has worked, volunteered or done graduate research in biosecurity)We're especially looking for (you meet at least one of the following):
• Infectious disease modelling professionals
• Postdocs, assistant professors and professors in relevant fields
• Think tank employee focusing on biosecurity
• Government representatives or scientific officers in governments (with permission from their employer)

What does being a member involve?

For the time being, here are the answers to some of our frequently asked questions (FAQs). Further details on membership will be confirmed in due course.Are there a minimum amount of hours required to take part?
Not during the 3-month trial version.Are there country requirements for taking part?
Not during the 3-month trial version.Are there any other exclusion criteria for members e.g. government workers?
Not during the 3-month trial version.How is this compensated?
Contributions are currently voluntary. We will consider other compensation methods if funding is secured during the 3-month trial version.What platform is used to make forecasts?
Fatebook is used.