International

Biosecurity Forecasting Group

Anticipating tomorrow’s biological risks, today.

What is this group?

We translate forecasting into actionable foresight—helping policymakers, funders, and researchers identify emerging biosecurity threats and act before they escalate.The BFG is an independent, volunteer-led network of researchers and practitioners in
biosecurity, forecasting, and global health. Founded in 2025 as a spinoff of the Oxford Biosecurity Group, BFG connects scientists, forecasters, policy experts, academia, and other biosecurity stakeholders across the world to improve global decision-making on biological risks.The next pandemic won’t wait for policy cycles… Decision-makers need credible, early foresight to act on threats before they spiral. BFG bridges the gap between innovation and governance, turning uncertainty into insight and helping the world prepare—not just react.Find out more below.

Our Mission

Translating biosecurity forecasting into actionable foresight

Our work focuses on three core pillars of work:🧭 Forecasting & Foresight
Turning data and expert judgment into early-warning insights.📰 Science Communication
Making complex biosecurity topics accessible and evidence-based.🏛️ Policy & Decision Support
Delivering foresight that helps shape smarter governance.In addition, we have conducted activities to mitigate biorisks from AI and emerging technologies and building practical biorisk tools - areas which we hope to expand into in the future.

Projects

Forecasting Trial Round, Feb-May 2025

In early 2025 we worked together on forecasting questions focussed on the spread and impact of viral outbreaks. In particular H5N1, Marburg virus, Mpox, Ebola and Emerging outbreaks, e.g. the US measles outbreak. A full report will be released December 2025, but you can read more about our early results here.

Forecasting Season 1, Beginning January 2026

The first BFG-led open Forecasting Season will be held in January 2026.
Details will be available here by Dec. 19.This group is open to forecast requests. Please email: [email protected]

Who Are We?

Our Co-Founders

How can I become a member?

If you are interested in joining the Biosecurity Forecasting Group we encourage you to apply. In general, you are likely to be a good fit for the forecasting group if you meet the following criteria:Criteria (you meet at least one of the following):
• Forecaster with ~2 or more years of experience and a top track record
• Virology/immunology/synthetic biology PhD student or higher, or 2-3 years of relevant biological research (e.g. in an academic lab or industry)
• Biosecurity experience or background (e.g. has worked, volunteered or done graduate research in biosecurity)We're especially looking for (you meet at least one of the following):
• Infectious disease modelling professionals
• Postdocs, assistant professors and professors in relevant fields
• Think tank employee focusing on biosecurity
• Government representatives or scientific officers in governments (with permission from their employer)

What does being a member involve?

For the time being, here are the answers to some of our frequently asked questions (FAQs).Are there a minimum amount of hours required to take part?
NoAre there country requirements for taking part?
NoAre there any other exclusion criteria for members e.g. government workers?
NoHow is this compensated?
Contributions to BFG questions are currently voluntary. We share paid opportunities with our forecasters. For example forecasting contract opportunities.What platform is used to make forecasts?
Fatebook is used.

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